Heart failure
NEJM opinion piece questions whether nesiritide should be marketed
Jul 13, 2005 | Steve Stiles

Boston, MA - An opinion piece by Dr Eric J Topol (Cleveland Clinic Foundation, OH) in the July 14, 2005 issue of the New England Journal of Medicine takes aim at the clinical viability of nesiritide (Natrecor, Scios) and what appear to be limit-stretching strategies for marketing the drug [1].

"In my view, nesiritide has not yet met the minimal criteria for safety and efficacy," Topol writes. "Until a trial definitively proves that this drug reduces the risk of death or repeated hospitalization for heart failure, there will be questions about the appropriateness of the drug's use or even commercial availability." Nesiritide is approved in the US solely for patients hospitalized with acute decompensated HF.

Topol contends there were weaknesses in the studies that supported nesiritide's Food and Drug Administration approval, including a reliance on short-term hemodynamic measurements and subjective symptoms as primary efficacy measures, rather than hard clinical end points. Also, he writes, those trials showed suggestions of increased risk of renal dysfunction and mortality among the patients who received nesiritide.

In cardiovascular medicine, we learned long ago that therapies directed at surrogate end points . . . can be associated with excess death.

The Perspective is the latest of a series of events, covered in depth by heartwire, that have either questioned or supported the continued use of nesiritide. These include two controversial meta-analyses from Sackner-Bernstein et al suggesting that nesiritide may promote renal dysfunction as well as increase 30-day mortality in its target population [2,3]. Subsequently, Scios invited Dr Eugene Braunwald (Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA) to lead a panel that would evaluate the drug's safety. They ultimately judged nesiritide to be currently acceptable for its indicated population but also called for a series of clinical trials to investigate the concerns.

Topol also slams certain practices of Scios as it markets the drug, including what he sees as unusually blatant encouragement of physicians to prescribe nesiritide off label and to use an unconventional coding strategy when applying for Medicare reimbursement.


What do the data say?

In the randomized trial underpinning nesiritide's approval, Vasodilatation in the Management of Acute Congestive Heart Failure (VMAC), only the three-hour changes in pulmonary capillary wedge pressure and self-reported dyspnea were used to gauge the drug's efficacy among the 498 acute-HF patients receiving nesiritide, nitroglycerin, or placebo.

"In cardiovascular medicine, we learned long ago that therapies directed at surrogate end points . . . can be associated with excess death," Topol writes, citing the historical examples of certain antiarrhythmic agents to suppress premature ventricular contractions and inotropic agents to improve LV ejection fraction.

"The FDA approval went forward despite an internal reviewer's critical point that VMAC did not rule out a 50% increase in the risk of death [with nesiritide]," he writes. To heartwire, Topol said the FDA's response to VMAC should have been: "We have concern about this drug, the deaths are going in the wrong direction, the kidney function is definitely a problem, and we need more trials."

"Maybe the drug does save lives. Maybe the drug is fine and reduces hospitalizations. But right now the data don't look good," he said, adding that the most appropriate end point would have been 30-day mortality or repeat hospitalization along with tracking of renal function.

I personally would be satisfied with data that demonstrate clinical benefit with the drug, administered for short periods of time, with reasonable assurance that there is not a substantial excess in mortality associated with that use.

The meta-analyses from Sackner-Bernstein et al "raise important concerns that should be heeded by all clinicians," said Dr Marvin Konstam (Tufts-New England Medical Center, Boston, MA) to heartwire. But he echoed other HF specialists, quoted in prior heartwire stories, in noting a different meta-analysis that encompassed more nesiritide data and told a less severe story of potential risk. In it, he observed, "the suggestion of a mortality excess was much less impressive." Because Scios conducted this meta-analysis, "one has to look at it with a grain of salt," Konstam said. But, he noted, although it too showed nesiritide to be associated with an adverse effect on serum creatinine, it was dose-related and small at currently recommended dosage levels.

Although nesiritide for now has justified its place in clinical medicine, according to Konstam, the drug should be used with caution. "Clearly we need more data, and clearly we need more studies. This is an area of medicine where we are very lacking in well-controlled outcomes data to demonstrate benefit." That's in part because mortality trials in acute decompensated HF "are extremely difficult" to conduct, so he wouldn't insist that a drug that is administered over the short term prove itself long term in such a trial. "I personally would be satisfied with data that demonstrate clinical benefit with the drug, administered for short periods of time, with reasonable assurance that there is not a substantial excess in mortality associated with that use."


"An aggressive marketing campaign"

Topol also challenges certain practices of Scios as it markets nesiritide to physicians. Scios is waging "an aggressive marketing campaign" that is encouraging physicians to set up facilities where outpatients get serial nesiritide infusions over weeks or months, he writes. The Braunwald panel specified that nesiritide should not be used in this way, which is contrary to the drug's labeling.

We practice medicine in an era in which there is one pharmaceutical-company representative for every five physicians and in which the companies will stretch the limits in their marketing of drugs.

"There are no data to secure the place of serial outpatient infusions, and these centers are all over the US," according to Topol. Physicians who run them "are practicing non-evidence-based medicine, and they're making profits doing it." Withdrawing the drug is the only way to stop the practice, he said. "The serial infusion centers are going to be out there as long as the drug is marketed."

"Companies should not be engaging in practices to market or advance the use of drugs in an off-label fashion," Konstam said. "That should be clear to all of us." He observed that the second Follow-up Serial Infusions of Natrecor (FUSION-2) study is currently exploring the strategy of serial outpatient infusions in patients discharged after an episode of acute decompensated HF. The only physicians who should be using the drug in this way, he said, are the ones participating in that trial.

Scios advises physicians through literature and a toll-free "hotline" on how to set up the infusion centers and bill Medicare for the process of administering nesiritide and observing the patient afterward, "as one would for chemotherapy," according to Topol. The company justifies this approach, he writes, by pointing to billing-code descriptions for chemotherapy that encompass "substances such as monoclonal antibody agents and other biological-response modifiers." Nesiritide, a bioengineered version of human brain-type natriuretic peptide, arguably fits that description.

A theme throughout Topol's Perspective is that problems surrounding nesiritide's approval and use are not isolated. He writes, "We practice medicine in an era in which there is one pharmaceutical-company representative for every five physicians and in which the companies will stretch the limits in their marketing of drugs. The boundary lines that previously separated industry from the FDA and academia have unfortunately become blurred."

Topol, who is editor-in-chief of theheart.org's clinical content and a shareholder in its parent company, reports no conflicts of interest in connection with his report in the New England Journal of Medicine. Konstam is chair of the data and safety monitoring board for the FUSION-2 trial.

Sources
  1. Topol EJ. Nesiritide—not verified. N Engl J Med 2005; 353:113-116. Available at: http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/short/353/2/113.
  2. Sackner-Bernstein JD, Skopicki HA, Aaronson KD. Risk of worsening renal function with nesiritide in patients with acutely decompensated heart failure. Circulation 2005; 111:1487-1491.
  3. Sackner-Bernstein JD, Kowalski M, Fox M, Aaronson K. Short-term risk of death after treatment with nesiritide for decompensated heart failure: A pooled analysis of randomized controlled trials. JAMA 2005; 293:1900-1905.



Your comments
NEJM opinion piece questions whether nesiritide should be marketed
# 1 of 19
July 28, 2005 06:37 (EDT)
Erica Rodriguez
Now what?
Nesiritide has provided patients the ability to participate in life again, as evidenced in outpatient clinics throughout the country. I find it ironic and amusing, in a sordid sort of way, that physicians that have nothing to do with outpatient infusions are the ones to dictate the necessity of the clinics and the use of nesiritide. Of course more studies need to be done, but until then, what do these anti-nesiritide physicians suggest we use to treat chronic HF patients? We have optimized their meds, implanted Bi-V devices, and they still fail to stay out of the hospital. If I asked my patients if they preferred to use a drug that may cause death or renal failure in a small percentage of patients, but would assist in improving their quality of life versus struggling for their last breath before being eligible for treatment, what do you think they would choose. Quality of life is more important to this population than quantity of days that they may have left.
# 2 of 19
July 28, 2005 09:00 (EDT)
Melissa Walton-Shirley
Freedom of choice
Erica, I could not agree more. I just hospitalized a patient today for Nesiritide that has now failed two day/week infusions as an outpatient. A few continuous days of in -patient therapy seem to get him back on track. Then, he'll return home to an outpatient infusion schedule. He's failed dobutamine, is on 320 mg Valsartin, Carvediolol 25 q 12, Lasix 80-160/day and still drowning. He has a bi-V and it didn't do much for him. If the outpatient clinic closes, he will spend his few remaining months in the hospital. While we are getting up in arms about IV Neseritide infusion, I've wondered how Dobutamine and it's proarrythmia has escaped the cross-hairs? For that matter, tobacco and alcohol are legal in this country and we all know the negatives associated with these drugs. My heart failure patient could go to the local "smoker's friend" store and get a carton of smokes, but he probably won't be able to get nesiritide in the future. If he smoked, he could stand up, beat his chest and argue that it is his "right as an American" to be able to choose. Why can't he argue his right to choose nesiritide as well? Melissa
# 3 of 19
August 1, 2005 07:36 (EDT)
Jeffrey Mann
Where's the EBM evidence?
Is there incontestable EBM evidence that nesiritide is definitively therapeutic when administered to chronic CHF patients in outpatient clinics? If not, why should individual physicians and individual patients have the right to chose this therapy when society eventually bears the financial costs via higher insurance premiums? Jeff.
# 4 of 19
August 1, 2005 08:52 (EDT)
Melissa Walton-Shirley
Nesiritide
Jeffrey, These patients that are enrolled in outpatient clinics are patients that have failed standard meds, then treated with inpatient nesiritide with proven diuresis and weight loss when nothing else worked. It's not difficult to see that a patient who is water logged and refractory improves and it's not temporarily difficult to decide which of the therapies are working as long as it's the only change in their regimen. I think the studies are necessary to evaluate whether or not it should ever be first line therapy or just reserved for those that are refractory to everything else. Melissa
# 5 of 19
August 2, 2005 02:46 (EDT)
Gerard Freisinger
Re the Nesiritide patinet
Melissa, the endstage patient you recently hospitalized who failed Bi V pacing....some of our EP folks do not optimize the AV interval or the VV interval based on doppler tissue dyssynchrony studies before, during or after the implantation. Are your folks more compulsive? Just a passing thought. I think the committee chaired by Braunwald did still suggest that patients be enrolled in the FUSION trials. This would apply to chronic outpatient treatment. Not sure how to get a patient into the trial so that one can tell the atttorney that the renal failure was "approved". Gerry
# 6 of 19
August 2, 2005 05:11 (EDT)
Andrew Davie
A different perspective ?
As you may know, nesiritide is not yet licensed or available in the UK. It has been interesting to follow this debate from the sidelines, as it were. What strikes me most forcibly of all, is that I don't perceive any need for this drug. I have racked my brains to think of the patients I have seen, who might conceivably have benefited from it, and I just can't think of any. I may be proved wrong, but I can't see this drug having a long-term future.
# 7 of 19
August 2, 2005 06:41 (EDT)
Melissa Walton-Shirley
And the answer is..........still out there somewhere
Andrew and Gerard, I so most appreciate your posts. I agree that there aren't tons of patients who require Nesiritide therapy in our practice either. In the time that Nesiritide as been available, and out of 40,000 active patients in our practice, we have had no more than four patients enrolled in our outpatient clinic at one time.We use it several times per month in our inpatient setting, so we aren't just throwing it in the mix without good cause. Once again, I'd like to make the point that our practice charges nothing for overseeing these patients and does not bill the patient for our rounds there. Therefore, there are no enterpreneureal motivations here in this discussion. 1. My partner implanted this gentleman's Bi-V and I do not recall seeing a report regarding doppler tissue analysis-so I'll check into that, an excellent suggestion, though I did request that this gentleman's bi-V be re- interrogated some months back. 2. As far as renal failure goes, I've seen no significant long term sequelae and I think that is because we are monitoring BUN/CR. daily from the outset in patients who are diuresing hard no matter what the cause. If I see a trend toward elevation, I just add renal perfusion dopamine and slow up on the Furosemide. Worked so far. *I've bumped BuN/Cr. so much more often with diuertic alone than I've ever bumped with natrecor. 3. Andrew, the patients that have died of primary pump failure when nothing else was working; those are the types of patients that we consider. This gentleman's PET was negative yesterday and I was so hoping for a recurrent Sarcoma because 9 years ago, it was a paraneoplastic process that caused his CM/CHF/anemia which normalized after we excised it. Now, we are dealing with an idiopathic process (no chemo given prior) and in rapid decline. I cath'd him in September EF: 30's. Only small diagonal branch disease. Echo yesterday, EF 22%. I think I'm being turned down today for a destination LVAD because his age is 76 and no he's not a typical 76 year old as he still strives to be active. I'll confess that when I brought him in for reevaluation this past week, I started him back on inpatient natrecor thinking a prolonged infusion might help but it didn't. I added low dose dopamine and he really started to diurese. I can do so much more to reduce weight with renal perfusion dopamine than anything else in some of these patients, which isn't supposed to work either. I want to stress that we are just as interested in the "truth" of the matter as anyone else and will anxiously await the future study outcomes. Only a grand total of around 1200 patients have been enrolled in randomized trials so far (less than 1/3 were women) and I agree whole heartedly that this is not enough to answer all of our questions. It's a tough population to analyze. Melissa
# 8 of 19
August 2, 2005 08:22 (EDT)
Jeffrey Mann
Which endpoints are in use?
Melissa -- can you refer me to a paper that proves that outpatient clinic administration of nesiritide is beneficial for chronic CHF patients? I am particularly interested in knowing which endpoints are used and whether it decreases patient mortality or improves the quality of life? I presume that a temporary loss of weight due to a drug-induced diuresis is not the primary endpoint. Jeff.
# 9 of 19
August 2, 2005 11:34 (EDT)
Melissa Walton-Shirley
Endpoints:
Jeffrey, This is about as close as I can get for now: PROACTION (Prospective Randomized Trial of Acutely Decompensated Congestive Heart Failure Treatment Intially with Outpatient Nesiritide)-250 patients 2mcg/kg bolus with .01 mcg/kg/min. infusion-demonsrated decrease in admission, readmission rates and cost. Patients presented to ED and treated as "outpatient". FUSION: Randomized multicenter placebo controled, 210 patient with three arms: usual care, usual care + .005mcg/kg/min infusion x 4-6 hr infusions x 12 weeks or .01mcg/kg/min infusion x 4-6 hr/week x 12 weeks. so far, trend in decreased mortality (17.4% with usual care vs. 4.5% with infusion), plus increased "days alive and out of the hospital". Neither of which are powered with numbers. I guess I have to be tongue in cheek and say the studies for lower mortality are right out there with the studies for nitroglycerin, Lasix, dobutamine and Digoxin for lowering mortality. And don't they have significant morbidity as well if not utilized properly and monitored carefully? Melissa
# 10 of 19
August 4, 2005 09:23 (EDT)
James J. King
Natrecor safer than pressors
The statistics reported are overwhelming. (a meta-analysis published in the April 20 issue of JAMA) -485 nesiritide-treated, 377 controls -Nesiritide-treated were 1.74 times more likely to die within the 30-days. -Nesiritide-treated patients, 35 (7.2%) died in this time period compared with 15 (4.0%) (P = .059) Anecdotally, I have had some excellent short term in-hospital response, but what is happening to the patients a month later? I did not appreciate the increased mortality, but a trial will really help, as meta-analyses can be misleading. I have certainly decreased my usage of Natrecor in the last 6 months. I can say that in-hospital Natrecor is better and safer than pressors.
# 11 of 19
August 4, 2005 05:27 (EDT)
D Hackam
p-value
Dr King, I submit to you that a p-value of 0.059 means that there is a reasonable chance (approximately 6 times out of 100) that the pooled meta-analytic result is all due to chance and random error. I think we need to start adopting a level of statistical significance of 0.01 (or lower), rather than 0.05, since so many studies now report marginal results in the 0.05-0.10 range as being "positive". Analogy: I would not be surprised to roll a pair of dice and getting two sixes but the probability of doing this on a single toss is 1 in 36, or p=0.028. This problem is inflated further in that meta-analyses commonly report results for multiple outcomes, but do not define their level of significance lower as they should (to adjust for the problem of multiple hypothesis testing). We need to remember that without statistical significance, clinical significance (even a near doubling of mortality) is meaningless and just might not be there.
# 12 of 19
August 5, 2005 07:11 (EDT)
Melissa Walton-Shirley
Awakenings
I have two remaining patients in Natrecor outpatient clinic. One of which has normal EF, but diasolic dysfunction and has lost about 30 pounds on outpatient natrecor. She has lived miserably for years without being able to come out of her house prior to clinic and has become more independant,(back to doing some of her own housework) is no longer" purple and panting". I hate to break it to her that this might not be an option for the future. Maybe the benefit she has gained will be sustained for a while. This entire scenario is reminiscent of the movie based on medical non-fiction "Awakenings" where patients were treated for post-encephalitic catatonia and after receiving a miracle drug they became normal. Unfortunately, the effect was short lived. They all went back to exactly as they were pre-treatment after having sampled some semblance of a near normal life. Hence, lots of patients in America are facing the same end without Natrecor in there future. A patient from a neighboring town is end stage and his cardiologist in Louisville has asked that I help prepare him for home Dobutamine in our ICU since he is closer to home, inoperable, MR, drowning by CXR. We all know that Dobutamine can increase mortality while it makes quality of life better, yet no protests about that? "Strain at a gnat, swallow a camel." By the way, I'm sending the gentleman I presented earlier in this series of posts for destination therapy evaluation. Melissa
# 13 of 19
August 8, 2005 11:08 (EDT)
Jeffrey Mann
PROACTION and FUSION trials
Melissa- you state that the FUSION trial demonstrated a decrease in mortality. I could not get the full-text article, but this abstract suggests that there was no statistically differences among groups by outcome. FUSION trial -- The Follow-Up Serial Infusions of Nesiritide pilot study was designed to assess the safety and tolerability of outpatient serial infusions of nesiritide in 210 patients with decompensated heart failure who were randomly assigned to usual care only or usual care plus weekly infusions of nesiritide at dosages of 0.005 or 0.01 microg/kg/min for 12 weeks. The mean age +/- SD of the entire population was 67 +/- 13 years; 70% were men, and 80% were white. Mean baseline serum creatinine levels were 1.8 +/- 0.7 mg/dl, and mean left ventricular ejection fraction was 0.28 +/- 0.15%. Diabetes mellitus was present in 106 patients (50%), and atrial arrhythmias were present in 100 patients (48%). A totalof 1,645 nesiritide infusions was administered; 11 (< 1%) were discontinued due to an adverse event. All treatment groups had a similar frequency of adverse events and experienced improvements in quality of life. Administration of nesiritide resulted in acute decreases in aldosterone and endothelin-1 concentrations. Although there were no statistically significant differences among groups by outcome, prospectively defined higher risk subgroups demonstrated significant decreases in cardiovascular events. These results demonstrate the safety and feasibility of administering nesiritide in an outpatient setting. Additional studies are needed to determine the effect of outpatient serial infusions of nesiritide on rates of morbidity and mortality in advanced heart failure. Copyright 2004 Excerpta Medica, Inc. ---------------------------- Melissa -- you state that the PROACTION study showed that nesiritide caused a decrease in admission rates. According to the following abstract, the study was a pilot study designed to study nesiritide's effect on the blood pressure. I read the full-text article in the May 2005 issue of the Am J of Emergency Medicine and I cannot identify any comments regarding differences in admission rates. PROACTION study The Prospective Randomized Outcomes study of Acutely decompensated Congestive heart failure Treated Initially as Outpatients with Nesiritide (PROACTION) trial evaluated the safety of nesiritide administration in the emergency department in patients with decompensated heart failure. Patients (N=237) were treated for at least 12 hours with standard care plus either intravenous nesiritide or placebo. Compared to placebo, nesiritide favorably decreased systolic blood pressure (SBP) in patients with elevated baseline SBP, without negatively impacting patients with lower baseline SBP (SBP, >140 mm Hg: nesiritide, -28.7 mm Hg, vs placebo, -8.4 mm Hg [P<.001]; SBP, 101-140 mm Hg: nesiritide, -12.3 mm Hg, vs placebo, -5 mm Hg [P<.017]; SBP, <101 mm Hg: nesiritide, -1.2 mm Hg vs placebo, +16.7 mm Hg [P<.03]). Both treatment groups had similar incidences of symptomatic and asymptomatic hypotension. These data demonstrate that early administration of nesiritide in the emergency department is a safe and effective treatment of heart failure. Jeff.
# 14 of 19
August 8, 2005 12:16 (EDT)
Jeffrey Mann
How best to quantify the effect of chance
Dan -- you state that changing the P value from <0.05 to <0.01 would be an improvement because a P value of <0.5 implies that there is a 1:20 chance that the trial's results could be due to chance while a P value <0.01 implies a 1:100 chance. Surely, what's more important is how many trials would have a P value of <0.05 if the trial was repeated 1,000 times using the same sample size and same control event rate and a presumed "no bias" RRR of 20% (rather than changing the P value threshold limit). Let me give you a practical example. Let's presume that there was a trial of nesiritide that studied 250 patients (125 nesiritide patients, 125 placebo patients) and the trial demonstrated that nesiritide decreased the 3 monthly admission rate by 20% from an absolute value of 5% to 4%. How does one assess to what degree chance played a role in the trial's results? Consider the results from this Clinical Trial Simulator tool (see my essay at http://jeffmann.net/soapbox/chanceevents.htm for details on the tool) where the trial of 250 patients is performed 1,000 times and where the RRR is 20% (control event rate of 5%, nesiritide event rate 4%). See http://jeffmann.net/soapbox/NesiritideExample.htm Note that there is only a 4.5% chance that any trial would have a P value <0.05. Also, note that the 4.5% chance of having a trial with a P value <0.05 would only improve to 21% if the trial enrolled 2500 patients. Jeff.
# 15 of 19
August 8, 2005 06:11 (EDT)
Melissa Walton-Shirley
We aren't there yet...............
JEff, The trends toward any particular endpoint with these two studies is fairly meaningless until numbers of patients enrolled are adequate. You understand better than I with your love of all things statistic that trends are just trends until endpoints are analyzed with good numbers enrolled. Melissa
# 16 of 19
August 9, 2005 06:58 (EDT)
Melissa Walton-Shirley
Additionally Jeffrey
"Peacock WF, Emerman CI, On behalf of the PROACTION Study Group: Safety and Efficacy of Nesiritide in the treatment of Decompensated HF in observation patients-Abstract presented at ACC 4/2003, Chicago. Nesiritide vs. usual care: Hospital readmit within 30 days was decreased 57% vs placebo". Even though underpowered, interesting data and I wanted you to know that I just didn't make this up!! Jeffrey, it's sometimes helpful to read the study first then research the study . You will often times access interesting post presentation discussions, subset analysis, etc. There is something more than a p value to glean from any study and even though it might not be adequate, the concept may be thought provoking and inspire further study on the topic. Melissa
# 17 of 19
August 9, 2005 04:28 (EDT)
Jeffrey Mann
Access to the study's data
Melissa -- can you tell me how to get the PROACTION study's data/report? If not, can you tell me the sample size and control event rate (30-day readmit rate in placebo patients)? Jeff.
# 18 of 19
August 9, 2005 09:42 (EDT)
Jeffrey Mann
More comments regarding P values
I think that a problem with using P values (5%, or even 1% or 0.1%) is that P values only measure "statistical significance" and they do not provide any information regarding the clinical significance of the measured effect, and therefore I don't think that P values should be used by healthcare decision-makers. The P value is a quantitative estimate of the probability that observed differences in treatment effects in a particular study could have happened by chance alone, assuming that that there is in fact no difference between the treatment groups. In other words, it is a statistical hypothesis-testing technique used to test, and nullify, a primary null hypothesis (usually called the H0 hypothesis) that there is no difference between the treatments. The problem with P values is that it doesn't attempt to estimate the magnitude of the effect and determine whether it has practical (clinical) importance. In fact, entirely trivial treatment differences can be highly statistically significant (P value <0.001) if a large enough sample of patients are studied. The effect size (eg. treatment effect in a clinical trial) is called the point estimate. However, the point estimate is not nessarily the true effect size, and statistical precision (stability of the point estimate) is best measured using the 95% confidence intervals around the point estimate, which tells one that there is a 95% probability that the true effect is found within that 95% CI range. For example, if the point estimate effect in a clinical trial is a 20% relative risk reduction (RRR) and the 95%CI is between 10%-30%RRR then a person learns a great deal. First of all, it tells one that the clinical trial must have a P value of <0.05 because the 95%CI doesn't include zero. Secondly, it suggests that the trial has a high signal/noise ratio and that one can be very confident in the trial's result (presuming that there is no underlying systematic bias) because the 95% confidence interval is so narrow. Thirdly, it provides a range of values and a person can decide whether it is clinically significant (which is an independent subjective decision). For example, if healthcare decision-makers decide that it is rational to use a drug if it has at least a 10% RRR then one can be very confident that the trial demonstrated that the treatment had at least that level of RRR (10% RRR, or >10%RRR and up to 30%RRR) with a high degree of certainty (95% certainty). That is why I think that the 95% CI measurement provides much more information than P values. A trial that has wide 95%CIs is also useful. For example, if the point estimate is a 20%RRR but the 95%CI range extends from -50% to +70%, then one learns a great deal. The fact that the 95%CI range crosses the zero point means that the P value cannot be <0.05. Secondly, one realises that the true treatment effect can either be beneficial, or harmful, and one cannot even identify whether the treatment is good or bad. In other words, one learns that the trial is underpowered to determine the utility of the treatment, and that one cannot be confident in the trial's conclusion (that the RRR is 20%). -- continued in part 2
# 19 of 19
August 9, 2005 09:43 (EDT)
Jeffrey Mann
-- part 2
I think that there is even a better way to study a trial's results that is even more informative, and that is to use the Clinical Trial Simulator tool, which can be freely downloaded from http://randomization.org. I described how the CTS tool works in my essay called "Quantifying the potential magnitude of chance event noise in randomised controlled trials" which is available at http://jeffmann.net/soapbox/chanceevents.htm. Knowing that few people would read my entire essay, I will provide a practical example. Let's presume that a 250 patient clinical study is studying whether outpatient clinical infusions of nesiritide can decrease the 3 monthly hospital re-admission rate in chronic heart failure patients, and that the point estimate is a 20% RRR (reducing the 3 monthly hospital readmission rate from 5% to 4%). Can one be confident in the trial's results? See http://jeffmann.net/soapbox/NesiritideExample.htm for my CTS tool analysis of this hypothetical trial. Hopefully, the power and value of the CTS tool will become self-evident. If you are interested in learning more about P values and 95%CIs, see these free website offerings. http://www.acponline.org/journals/ecp/julaug01/primer.htm http://www.acponline.org/journals/ecp/sepoct01/primerci.htm http://www.tufts.edu/~gdallal/pval.htm http://www.tufts.edu/~gdallal/ci.htm Jeff.

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