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New York, NY - The 2007 New England Patriots (NE07) seem likely to join the 1972 Miami Dolphins (MIA72) as the only undefeated Super Bowl champion teams. While New England did so with two more victories, a variety of perspectives seem based on qualitative rather than quantitative analytic approaches. There is no doubt that the players of 2007 are bigger, stronger, and faster. In parallel, there is no disagreement that changes in rules for blocking and pass defense, among other factors, make direct comparison between the two teams arbitrary.
And while there may be many ways to define the possible bases for drawing a conclusion about which team is better, one approach that has not received a high level of attention is a statistical comparison of each group relative to its peers. By doing sothat is, by statistically assessing the dominance of each team relative to the performance of its peers, I hypothesize that one can determine which is the superior team.
Methods
Data were collected for outcomes of games played for both teams from their respective seasons. These data were identified on the internet and tabulated for the analyses to be performed.
To normalize the results for each of the MIA72 and the NE07 teams, data were also collected for all teams in each of those seasons. Calculation of median values of per-game performance was performed for all teams in each season, with the team of interest excluded. The parameters of interest were proposed to be three sets of data that reflect relative dominance, points, yards, and time of possession. As time-of-possession data were not available for the 1972 season, all analyses to test relative dominance of each team were based on points and yards. Thus, median values were calculated for points for/against and total yards offense/defense, from which differentials could be calculated. For each of these four parameters, the medians were used to create a ratio of the same parameters on a game-by-game basis for each team of interest (MIA72 and NE07). As a secondary analysis, each of these four parameters was scaled based on the winning percentage of the opponent in each game, using the end-of-season record to calculate this parameter. For this secondary analysis, this would have the effect of normalizing final scores in the following manner: a 20-10 victory over a 0.500 team would count as 10-5, whereas a 27-21 victory over a team with a 0.333 record would count as a 9-7 score, magnifying the importance of the strength of schedule.
For both approaches to normalizing data, the factor used for normalization was based on season totals, and then the calculations made on individual game data.
To understand whether either team had different trends in performance over the course of the season, correlations were calculated between differential values for points and yards as a function of week-number of the season. If there were statistically significant trends for either team, the trends (slopes) would be compared using a t test to determine whether there was a statistically significant difference.
The choice of strategy for normalizing performance for strength of schedule was based largely on the limited amount of data available. Once opponent winning percentage was chosen, the only option was to use the end-of-year record. Using the opponent record at the time of the game was not statistically feasible, as this would have required imputing a value for the first game of the season (when all teams were 0-0) or these games would need to be omitted from the analyses. Omitting any data was not deemed acceptable.
A p-value of <0.05 would be considered nominally significant, although with 18 parameters tested, a smaller value, even on the order of <0.05/18, or <0.0028, should be the highest acceptable p-value to convincingly state that any difference noted would truly be statistically significant.
Results
The table provides the results of the analyses specified above. Note that the p-value would be used to determine whether any differences are statistically significant between the two teams.
Thus, while it would appear that the NE07 team is superior offensively and the MIA72 superior defensively, there are no differences detected in any of the calculations of differentials for points or yards.
There were no significant correlations for any parameter for either team for changes over the course of the season, so no comparisons were made between teams for any slopes derived.
Parameter
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MIA72
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NE07
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Difference for NE07 (%)
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p
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Opponent winning %
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0.357
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0.469
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0.14
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Points scored
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27.5
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36.8
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+34
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0.015
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Points allowed
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12.2
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17.1
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+40
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0.12
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Point differential
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15.3
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19.7
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0.36
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Yards gained
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360
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411
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+14
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0.059
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Yards allowed
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235
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288
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+23
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0.031
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Yards differential
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124
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123
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0.97
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Results normalized for league's median values
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|
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Points scored
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1.32
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1.75
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+33
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0.018
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Points allowed
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0.62
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0.78
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+26
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0.30
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Point differential
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0.70
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0.97
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0.24
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Yards gained
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1.20
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1.26
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+5
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0.53
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Yards allowed
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0.82
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1.05
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+28
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0.0092
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Yards differential
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0.38
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0.20
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0.19
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Results normalized for opponent winning percentage
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|
|
|
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Points scored
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9.04
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17.47
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+93
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0.0063
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Points allowed
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4.49
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8.45
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+88
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0.063
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Point differential
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4.55
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9.02
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0.055
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Yards gained
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123
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194
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+58
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0.023
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Yards allowed
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91
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136
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+81
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0.086
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Yard differential
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32
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58
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0.13
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Discussion
The MIA72 are the first, and for the time being, only undefeated National Football League (NFL) team in the Super Bowl era. The profound success of this year's NE07 team raises the question of which team is superior, under the assumption that the Patriots will win this weekend's Super Bowl. This analysis compares the level of dominance of each team relative to its peers and demonstrates that there is no statistically significant difference between these two teams for points or yards, whether the comparison is performed on data normalized for leaguewide results or opponent-specific performance.
One may be tempted to look at the performance of this season's Patriots as stunning, particularly owing to the lack of a team to approach this level of perfection in the past 35+ years. Alternatively, one could cite the Dolphins' accomplishment of being the number-one ranked team in offense and defense, both for points and years, as evidence of their dominance. And comparison of the two teams' strength of schedule is also a parameter that can be used to infer differences in performance. But these analyses, based on data from each team placed into the context of their respective eras, indicate that there is no statistical difference between the teams.
Another argument can be made in favor of one team or another based on the nature of the teams, more qualitatively. For example, a Patriots supporter can cite the difficultly of creating such a talented team in the free-agency/salary-cap era. Alternatively, Dolphins supporters can point to the success of the team with their first-string Hall of Fame quarterback on the bench as a reflection of the depth of talent. In any case, such qualitative arguments are interesting, but the statistical analysis presented herein is open to far less bias than any such qualitative argument.
An additional analysis of interest would be to include the performance of each team in the playoffs. This was not included because there did not appear to be a means to adjust for the rules in 1972 that required the Dolphins to play the conference championship game on the road (at Pittsburgh, despite having a superior record).
Thus, this analysis concludes that the regular season performances of the 1972 Miami Dolphins and the 2007 New England Patriots are statistically indistinguishable in terms of dominance over their opponents in each of their respective seasons. Under the assumption that the Patriots reign victorious in this year's Super Bowl, one can only conclude that the two teams are equally dominant and should be considered the two teams tied for the best single-season performances in the NFL's modern era.
Acknowledgment
As a life-long obsessed Dolphin fan, I admit disappointment that these data do not show that the Dolphins are superior, but the data are the data.
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